The U.S. House could have as many as 45 seats filled with Latino members after next week’s election, which is a record number of Latinos in the House. There are currently 38 Latino House members.
“We think we’ll have a very robust new class of Latinos overall,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund.
To reach 45 seats, 34 Latino incumbents would have to be re-elected or be succeeded by a Latino, and 11 Latinos running for seats not held by Latinos would also have to win.
With the Latinx community being the country’s largest racial and ethnic minority group, Vargas projected that Latinos would likely turn out for next week’s elections at levels similar to their record 2018 turnout. Nearly 11.7 million Latinos voted in the 2018 midterms, and NALEO projects that about 11.6 million Latinos will vote in the November 8 elections.
Latino voter turnout in California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and North Carolina should be about the same as in 2018. NALEO’s modeling also showed that Latino turnout is likely lower in Texas, down 6.4%, and New Mexico, down 9.8%.
There are 34.5 million Latino voters, but in recent elections, about less than half have voted. NALEO’s latest nine-week tracking poll shows that about half of Latinos have not been asked to vote this year. Democrats have the most outreach, with a 70% share in Texas. The highest Republican outreach was seen in Florida, with 43%.
“In order to see more turnout in Latino voters, we need to see sustained mobilization and investment in mobilizing the Latino vote as the eligible electorate grows,” Vargas said. “Let’s keep pace with this growth and candidates and parties need to invest.”
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